Postcard from Oxford - TEDGlobal

   

Oxford Museum of Natural History - TEDGlobal Conference

 

Attending the TED conference is always inspiring, entertaining, and energizing , and given the wide range of presenters, it is a great forum to gather ideas from leading edge researchers, writers and experts in the latest developments in science, technology, entertainment and design.  The TED organization is committed to bringing these talks to the world, as they continue to be posted on the TED website.

 

This past week at Oxford was a particularly diverse range of speakers as well as attendees.  With 50 talks over 3 ½ days, it seems the best way to try to absorb all the learning is to seek common threads and themes, along with considering highlights. 

From the first day, with the surprise talk by Prime Minister Gordon Brown on shared global ethics – and the over-riding theme of environmental and social pressures on the planet, the possibilities for great human achievement presented across all disciplines were powerful.

 

Globalization of culture and communication, climate change, technology integration, bio-mimicry, medical and science breakthroughs, and the financial market pressures have created an unprecedented time for innovation in all market sectors. Of the 700 attendees, I met industry leaders from India, Japan, Cairo, Brazil, UK, South Africa, Hong Kong, Europe, and the US, among others – all seeking new ways of leading their businesses into the future.

For me, a few highlights were Bertrand Piccard, unveiling his new solar only powered aircraft slated to fly around the globe next summer (including through the night); Cameron Sinclair from Architecture for Humanity on construction sites around the world; Daniel Pink on the science of motivation (due out with his new book), and of course the session on city-building. We are now working with new sustainable design practices, new tools and technologies that allow us to create better cities – both in the developing world, as well as improving the cities we live in.

 

While caution and potential risks were debated, prevailing optimism and hope for humanity and the planet was the ultimate take away from TEDGlobal.  I'm thinking about all of this today as we develop the design of a residential and commercial center for 30,000 people in China. We have unprecedented opportunity and powerful responsibility to enhance the lives of the people and their community. 

Ideas Change Everything

Change Design - our pursuit of the moment.  In developing and designing buildings --  the act of creating buildings, by its nature, is a great expense of energy and materials dedicated to a moment in time, for the human activity of it's time.

   

photography - Sean Airhart 

Change is a constant state -- how can we create buildings that are relevant today, and lead us into our changed future?  Between the economy, climate change, and the technology revolution, we must design for change.  Here are some of the change design tools that we are using, every day.

Understand the past, listen to the present, design for the future. True listening involves challenging and dropping assumptions that are no longer relevant - and gaining new insights

Find the essential human experience necessary for an organization to optimise and be better. Look deeper, put yourself inside and walk through the experience, every step of the way.

Build renaissance teams - integrating diverse intelligence creates high performance outcomes. Pull in team members from differing backgrounds and with varied knowledge and training - don't allow social cohesion to stifle creative thinking.

Design to reuse, adapt, and re-invent. Look beyond the horizon line, understand directional shifts - step outside, broaden your vision. Consider all scales - the site, the neighborhood, the city, state, country - and look to the world beyond,

Design to cross boundaries - drive for integration, inside out, outside in. individual, community, world.

We can all be artists of change, shaping our future through change design.

Global Americans

A powerful trend in our practice is the growth of work in markets outside the US. Why do business leaders across the globe increasingly seek American designers for their projects?  Considering the challenges of distance and cultural hurdles, this decision is not made lightly - and is usually made at the highest executive level.

In my experience, our greatest value is our way of thinking.  We are the universal donor – type O - our relatively young and diverse culture creates a way of thinking that is our ultimate value outside the US. We are creative thinkers, open minded and empathetic to other cultures and frameworks, yet we are outside of them. 

 

Market Types

In the more evolved and sophisticated markets such as Europe and Japan, we approach challenges unrestricted by their complex framework, as agents of change.  Companies in these saturated and competitive markets are looking for ways to distinguish themselves from their competition, and often they feel that local designers are too entrenched to create unique solutions - imperative in these highly competitive markets. 

 

Wellcome Truster Sanger Institute, Cambridge, UK - NBBJ

photography - Peter Cook

 

In developing markets such as Middle East, China, and India, American designers offer comprehensive depth and breadth of expertise.  Key factors in developing markets include large scale planning projects and competitive and aggressive business practices - cost and speed are critical.  These markets develop in a fraction of the time of the evolved markets that developed ahead of them by using our expertise to catapult their aggressive development into the future on increasingly compressed time scales.  Americans are always rising to new challenges – bigger, faster, better.

 

Beijing Intercontinental Hotel - NBBJ

Global Mixing

Why would an Indonesian company hire an American designer to create a Japanese flagship store in their market?  Why would a Dubian retailer hire an American designer to design a British store in theirs?  Why would an Italian brand in Japan hire an American designer for their flagship store in Ginza, one of the most highly sophisticated and retail obsessed markets in the world?  Why hire an American designer to work inside a historic British landmark?  Why hire and American designer to re-create a community landmark flagship store for a historic Japanese brand? I've worked on all of these projects - our ability to fuse the cross-cultural aspirations has been highly valued in all cases. 

 

Perceptions

Americans are authoritative in leading the information, technology and communication age.  The language of the internet is American English.  Americans are global culture leaders – the culture of celebrities, Hollywood, MTV, music, art, and global brands – everywhere you go in the world, our cultural imprints are there.  These cultural trends are most quickly adopted by retail companies.  Retail companies with leadership aspirations either within their own markets or with global goals will look to Americans as definitive authority on global culture – the strongest link to the world, as many retailers are windows to the world to their customers and their communities.

  

Zhuhai Yanlord Beachfront Development - NBBJ

 

American architects and designers are respected as astute in business and strategic thinking, experienced in creating innovative work – thinking outside the box.  European companies may consider Americans superior in strategic business models, and Asian companies may look more to American designers for both business acumen and design authority.  Both continents respect our knowledge experience and expertise base, in addition our work ethic and commitment.  Americans are willing to go out there and engage, to pour our energy in to realizing the vision of our clients, their markets and the people that make up their communities.

  

Telenor Headquarters, Oslo, Norway - NBBJ

photography - Tim Griffith

 

Approach

Our ability to bridge and fuse other cultures while not being contained within any one market is our value. Developing deep understanding of multiple cultures and understanding what is relevant to a specific culture, community, and place is key. We can bring our expertise to the table, while quickly adapting and tuning our approach as we immerse and develop local knowledge and understanding of the people.

 

The Sail at Marina Bay - Singapore - NBBJ 

 

Listening is the first key. We develop insight into those who ultimately will be the gage of success in our designs – the communities and the individuals who will live there. Primary focus on the goals of our clients are critical, and understanding their company or brand cultures, their point of view -- with the personality and character reflected in the environment we create.  We carefully look at the competition in that market and focus on creating unique positioning that will be compelling to the people who experience the space we create.  We engage them, enrich lives, and create powerful memories that will draw them back.

 

What We Create

The fusion of all of these cultural insights and bridges into a meaningful experience for the individuals who experiences the space is our unique ability.  It’s how we connect all these differences into a reflection of the complex layers of human perception, connecting people to their own senses, their communities, the world, and the continuum of their collective past, present and future.

 

Offering at a Hindu Temple, Singapore

Brasil - Solid BRICs

  

Sao Paulo - the largest and wealthiest city in Brasil, from the rooftop of Hotel Unique

Brasil is the first country of reference in the BRIC group of fast growing developing economies - together with Russia, China, and India, hold over twenty-five percent of the world's land and forty percent of the world's population. Recently, I was in a meeting with a global luxury retailer who referred to Brasil as unaffected by the global recession. Surely, no country is completely unaffected - though in relative terms, Brasil is experiencing a powerful convergence of forces - political stability, optimism, natural resources and enlightened corporate leadership that is unprecedented.

 

Carbon-neutral corporate headquarters of a 4 billion dollar beauty products company

Yesterday, a panel of Brasilian retail developers at the ICSC conference in Las Vegas presented their case for the great opportunities that abound in this country that is emerging from a long period of economic and political turmoil. Though there are effects of the global economy in play, there has been so much catching up to do that it is hard to feel the recession in play.  

 

Team exercise break at the manufacturing facility

From The Economist "In some ways Brazil is the steadiest of the BRICs. Unlike China and Russia it is a full-blooded democracy; unlike India it has no serious disputes with its neighbors. It is the only BRIC without a nuclear bomb." The Heritage Foundations's Economic Freedom Index, which measures factors such as protection of property rights and free trade, ranks Brazil ("moderately free") above the other BRICs ("mostly unfree").

 

bem estar bem -- the corporate mantra - "well being well"

I had the opportunity of working with some of these retail companies over the past year, and I met business leaders who spoke of their increased alignment with the liberal democratic leadership of the country. I developed the deepest respect for the level of commitment to enlightened and sustainable business practices that far exceed any I have experienced. 

 

indoor garden - employee lounge, and recycling

From saving rainforest species and indigenous cultures, to education networks, environmental leadership, and well-being of the customers and employees - we have much to learn from their leadership in a sustainable future.

Oscar Niemeyer's cultural center - modern master architect

The cultural richness is vibrant, creative, modern, yet deeply connected to nature - which I discovered in a great variety of built environments - from stores, workplaces, cultural centers, and hotels. Watch Brasil go forward, into the future. I think it will be fascinating, and illuminating for us all.

 

Sao Paulo - inside out, outside in

Snapshot from a Global Summit - Department Store Focus 2009 Moscow

 

 

 

 

Attending events over the last decade organized by the IGDS – Intercontinental Group of Department Stores, the Zurich based organization of more than 30 flagship stores worldwide, has always been an illuminating global snapshot of the pulse of leading retailers across the globe. I've met with them in Dusseldorf, Hong Kong, London, and Manila. The summit last week in Moscow at the historic GUM department store (shopping center) adjacent to Red Square included presentations by 14 leading CEOs. 

 

 

GUM Department Store, Moscow

 

Through the lens of the financial crisis and falling revenues, forward thinking leaders at the summit were focused on two important issues – engaging their customers emotionally, and the forces of online shopping. Understanding the impact of the digital universe on shopping behavior is considered critical for success and survival.

One of the most compelling talks was Andy Rubin, the CEO of Pentland Brands – UK, “Chief Emotional Officer”, who focused on the importance of truly engaging the consumer as the key to success. His take on major trends:

Economy – the downturn is not over, and may go on for years – plan for worse.

Polarization – growth in value and steady in luxury – most challenges are in the middle of the market.

Internet Wave 3 - the new internet is mobile, unlimited, free, and accessible from anywhere. New websites take advantage of this new kind of mobility and access, such as asos.com, for younger consumer, or net-a-porter.com that offers premium service, free delivery anywhere, free returns, etc.  (I would add sites like closetcouture.com and gilt.com as new models in fashion)

Sustainability – environmental responsibility and ethical sourcing are forces of change that will fundamentally change retailers on a global scale.

Mr. Rubin believes that brands love flagships. Why?

Flagships tell stories

If consumers identify with the story they identify with the product. Mr Rubin’s brand stories – Speedo on Michael Phelps winning 8 gold medals, Rene Lacoste creating the crocodile legend, Berghaus with Leo Houlding’s base jumping para-alpinist adventures.  His flagship stores allow him to fully tell the story through images, video, events, and activities.

 

 

Flagships are brand laboratories

Flagships are labs for new product development and testing, for bold cross-merchandising.  A flagship allows for consumer insight - regular thorough feedback from consumers is essential.  A flagship is a place to build customer service – qualified product experts and service are critical. It is particularly important in specialized gear stores – choosing a wrong sized suit in a Berghaus store can cost you a life. New brand propositions, brand educations, ethical messages, community connections, media venues, event stages, parties, celebrities – flagships are entertainment venues.

 

  

Other talks included Mr. Alberto Alessi, on Italian design factories and the market niche that they occupy – not quite mass production, very high quality design and manufacturing, producing ‘art multiples’, and the importance of poetic and spiritual value of things in addition to functional value (relative to the history of craft).

Mr. Allan Namchaisiri, President of ZEN lifestyle store in Thailand. ZEN is an 8 story hybrid containing a wide range - from very well organized and top of the line shopping experience, to cafes, restaurants, to spas, medical offices, childcare, clubs, movies. On Friday, while presenting at the conference, he was missing a DJ night that sold 4000 tickets to the club at the top of ZEN store… he believes that a successful store is a place where people come for everything - entertainment, socializing, medical treatment, good music, food, and, of course, shopping!

In general many presenters talked about the importance of entertainment and events (cultural, parties, special causes) taking place in the flagship stores as a way of emotionally engaging the consumers and building customer support. Flagship stores more and more become a stage for brand, showing a brand’s history and personality for customers to experience.

Mr. Michael Gould, CEO of Bloomingdales talked about identity as primary importance for their multiplying stores. The use of characteristic black trim and black & white floor patterns are critical to the identity of the stores in their various locations and sizes. It allows a distinctive connection between a much smaller downtown Soho store and a much larger 59^th street location. Bloomingdales also is making a shift toward more upscale merchandise.

Mr. Teymuraz Guguberidze, CEO of GUM thinks differently – he believes that mixing the upscale brands such as Chanel or Hermes with more budget brands such as Zara or Sasch is a key to the most important and biggest luxury – freedom - freedom of choice (today you may want to go to Chanel and tomorrow to Zara).

 

Given the shopping activity at GUM in the morning of a work day – he seems to have it right…

 

 

Summit report contributions by Anya Bokov, Director - Moscow Office, NBBJ 

India - Converging Forces in the Rising Consumer Marketplace

 

The growth and development of India’s emerging economy in recent years has been of great interest to me. India’s dynamic energy and vibrant culture, combined with the new economy, present a singular opportunity for retail development. Fashion week, Bollywood, and international designers are all converging in a market that, according to a joint study by ASSOCHAM and KPMG, expects US $25-30 Billion investment in modern retail formats over the next 4-5 years.

I am hearing sparks of optimism spreading across many markets over the past few weeks – from our clients and friends in New York, Paris, Moscow, Shanghai, Dubai, and more.  Many interesting personal connections to India have presented themselves recently, and I am increasingly intrigued by these opportunities. Having spent time in India, I find many compelling aspects to the culture, the people, and the opportunities ahead. 

First, a recent visit from Bangalore - both the Chairman of an enlightened development group as well as the CEO of an architecture firm that we are working with in India. The gift of a deeply thoughtful presentation on architecture, art, beauty, culture, memory and the merging of theory and practice. 

 

 

Then, a series of reports on business development and retail sector opportunities landed on my desktop. This was followed bya visit from a newly minted design intern from India, then London, now living in our neighborhood with a passion for retail design and seeking the beginnings of her career.  Then, a conversation with a friend on all the emerging opportunities - an international architect, originally from India whose career has been spent in the US focused on retail design.

With favorable demographics (two-thirds of India’s 1.1 billion population is under 35), nearing 50 cities with more than one  million residents, strong economic growth figures projected over the next 5 years, a growing middle class and ascendant wealthy households – the emergence of organized retail remains in its infancy.

 

Last year I attended a global gathering of retail industry leaders in London: imagine the UN of retail leaders.By far the most exciting, and dynamic talk we experienced was delivered by the Chairman of the major retailer in India. I’m looking forward to what happens next, and planning to be a part of it.

http://www.ibef.org/industry/retail.aspx

   

Economy: The Painful Process Of De-Leveraging - Survive To Deal Again

As we know now, too much debt in many sectors of our economy resulted in a very fragile economic system; we’re paying the price for this now. The process of reducing the debt level is painful for everyone. The levels of debt were high for virtually all assets and businesses in this country. From consumer credit to Investment Bankers and everything in between, too many loans at too high levels. All based on the premise that value only goes one way, up.

Well as the saying goes what goes up… Commercial real estate unfortunately will not be immune to this process. Our outstanding commercial real estate mortgage debt in the United States now tops $3.4 billion. Impossible to say what the debt level will look like when we reach a stabilized point where new transactions and lending begin again; but safe to say we are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars of debt reduction.

The resizing process won’t happen overnight. How do we reduce the amount of debt in commercial real estate? Basically one of two general ways, 1) voluntarily through a refinance, work out or sale process as more cash equity is contributed by existing or new owners and new debt is created or re-set, or 2) through the foreclosure process. In both cases a new breed of asset manager/advisor will emerge, working with owners to attempt to find a level of debt that is sustainable. Expect closing dinners to suffer, as closings will not be cause for celebration in many instances.

Unfortunately we will see foreclosures and distressed sales resulting in significant losses for owners and lenders. The positive, if there is one, is that a new opportunity will be presented for a new buyer. Those asset managers/advisors will be in high demand and will learn at a very fast rate as all types of issues are presented. If history repeats they will become the next generation of owners and developers. New wealth will be created as the process unwinds; don’t expect to have fun everyday and don’t expect this to turn overnight, but the process will evolve and sooner rather than later we will be on the other side of this cycle. The goal in the short term is survive.